The late Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi intended to disperse the
weapons so they would not be easily targeted by opposition forces and
their international allies. Mines and mortars were stashed in old
factories. Heaps of artillery and ammunition were hidden away on private
properties. Anti-tank missiles were stockpiled in abandoned buildings.
This weekend, the
Sunday Times of
London reported an alarming figure: “It is understood [British
intelligence agency] MI6 estimates there are a million tons of weaponry
in Libya — more than the entire arsenal of the British Army — and much
of it is unsecured.”
Much of the regime’s weaponry was found and seized by rebel militias,
who are still using it to enforce security in places where the new
government remains incapable of asserting itself. Other munitions had
been used to outfit mercenary fighters from Africa, many of whom brought
their weapons home -- to countries including Mali, Niger and Algeria --
when the war was over.
Some Libyan weapons went even farther afield, and MI6 officials have
reportedly warned UK Prime Minister David Cameron that Libya has become a
“Tesco” for terrorists. But whether the Libyan arsenal actually amounts
to 1 million tons is impossible to say.
“It’s not outside the realm of possibility, though it depends on the
context,” said Matt Schroeder, an arms trade analyst with the Federation
of American Scientists. He points to Iraq, which had a similar problem
with widespread arms caches following the 2003 invasion, at which time
military officials
made the same million-ton estimate.
The risks posed by Libyan stockpiles extend far beyond North Africa.
MI6’s warning has sparked fears about the extent to which Gadhafi
stockpiles are flowing into war-torn Syria, and whether the unregulated
proliferation threatens to prolong an increasingly sectarian conflict
there.
A Cautionary Case Study
Libya is often held up as a cautionary tale for Syria, which is
embroiled in a 27-month conflict that has killed at least 93,000 people
and displaced millions more. Even if the Assad regime does fall to
opposition forces, tensions between religious and ethnic groups, or
between extremists and moderates, may continue to erupt into deadly
violence.
Libya is suffering the aftereffects of its own bloody conflict, which
killed tens of thousands of people. Two years after the Arab Spring
uprising ousted Gadhafi, Libya’s central government -- a transitional
body called the General National Congress -- remains weak. The bloodshed
has not stopped; this weekend, a senior judge was killed in the eastern
town of Derna, and at least 27 people died in the southwestern town of
Sebha during a confrontation between protesters and the members of a
pro-government militia called Libyan Shield.
These struggles present a timely warning, since Western countries
have lately warmed to the idea of arming the opposition in Syria. The
European Union allowed its arms embargo against Syria to expire in late
May, and the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama announced its
decision to arm the rebels just last week. Critics of this policy shift
argue that Western powers can’t stop the weapons from falling into the
wrong hands, especially since designated terrorist groups have
infiltrated both sides. Jabhat al-Nusra, a group linked to al-Qaeda, is
fighting for the opposition. Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shi'ite organization
backed by Iran, has sent its troops to defend the regime.
Ensuring munitions’ ultimate destinations is no easy task, which is
why Western powers will be hesitant to supply the Syrian rebels with
sophisticated weaponry. In fact, efforts to deliver arms into the right
hands may have already faltered. The
New York Times
reported in March that CIA agents have been working covertly to help
Gulf states like Qatar and Saudi Arabia steer arms toward favored
brigades of the Free Syrian Army. Many of these arms came from
stockpiles in the former Yugoslavia. But shortly thereafter,
statements
from Jabhat al-Nusra included photographs of its fighters using
anti-tank missiles with Yugoslavian origins, suggesting that the arms
benefited jihadist groups despite the best intentions of U.S.
operatives.
That Libya’s plentiful munitions are also finding their way to Syria only heightens the risks for all parties involved.
From Libya to Syria?
Given the nature of underground markets, it is impossible keep accurate track of all weapons flows into Syria.
“It’s very difficult to separate which weapons in Syria might have
been looted from Libya,” said Schroeder. “Some of those weapons are so
ubiquitous that their presence tells us little or nothing about where
they came from.”
Of the various kinds of weaponry that have lately turned up in Syria,
man-portable air-defense systems, or MANPADS, are particularly
alarming. MANPADS are missiles that can be launched by a single fighter
or small team. They need not be mounted to vehicles, are easily
smuggled, and can be very difficult to track and target.
Recent videos from Syria have shown some sophisticated MANPADS in
action, such as the FN-6, a Chinese-made surface-to-air missile, and the
SA-24, a Russian product. Both are fairly recent models with
heat-seeking capabilities, making them very dangerous not only to
military craft, but also to civilian planes.
While Libyan anti-aircraft missiles were typically of the
vehicle-mounted variety, it is possible that some of the SA-24s in Syria
came from Gadhafi’s scattered stockpiles.
Human Rights Watch
reported that empty boxes that had apparently contained SA-24s were
found in Libya in 2011, collecting dust in a schoolbook printing
facility.
Most of Libya’s Gadhafi-era anti-aircraft missiles were of older and
less sophisticated than SA-24s. But the numbers nonetheless paint a
worrisome picture; of the more than 20,000 MANPADS stockpiled by the
regime, about 3,000 remain unaccounted for. That’s to say nothing of
the other weapons – tank rounds, mortars, land mines, rifles and more –
that have been at risk of theft since the regime fell.
Of course, Syria is not the only potential destination for these
tools of war; Libyan arms have also helped to destabilize the African
Sahel – home to many of Gadhafi’s one-time mercenaries – especially in
Mali, where militant separatists took over more than half the country
and spurred a French-led intervention in January. An April report for
the U.N. Security Council found that “illicit flows from [Libya] are
fueling existing conflicts in Africa and the Levant and enriching the
arsenals of a range of non-state actors, including terrorist groups.”
Libyan and international leaders are hard-pressed to smother the
underground economy that has sprung up to take advantage of Libya’s
vulnerabilities as it rebuilds, and now Syria presents another
opportunity to address weapons proliferation issues head on. Regional
and global powers are watching closely to make sure that the Libyan
weapons debacle isn’t repeated this time around.
ib times.
