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Tripoli - Almost every week, Prime Minister Ali Zeidan either tries to
cajole the fighters choking off Libya's crude exports or threatens to
break their blockade by force.
Neither tactic has worked. Their
leader, Ibrahim al-Jathran, dug in at ports his men seized in August,
says he will sell Libya's oil himself and carve out a semi-state unless
the eastern region gets a fairer share of the revenues.
The
mutiny, which has shut three ports accounting for around half the OPEC
member's exports, has helped send global crude prices up and they could
rise much further if any armed clash inflicts long term damage.
But
lawmakers, oil sources and diplomats say Zeidan and Jathran are not on
the brink of war, and that if the prime minister can survive a political
crisis in the capital he may win the upper hand in the war of attrition
over oil exports.
"There is no chance of Jathran exporting oil
himself," said John Hamilton at CBI energy consultancy. "He can continue
the blockade, inflicting damage on the government's credibility and
finances, which gives him a high profile. But his autonomous government
has no finances or credibility."
It is a fragile moment. Zeidan,
from a small, liberal party, has survived an attempted vote of no
confidence in the Congress, split between Islamists and his backers in
the nationalist party, National Forces Alliance.
But he was
further pressured by the resignation last week of at least four Islamist
party cabinet ministers in protest over his government. His only source
of strength, for now, appears to be the lack of a viable alternative
premier.
Two years after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, the
struggle over exports is just one of the complex, inter-lacing disputes
among heavily-armed former rebels, militias and powerful tribes emerging
in the flux of post-revolt Libya.
Its constitution undrafted,
parliament deadlocked, and its army still in the works, Zeidan's
government often finds itself at the mercy of gun diplomacy.
The
oil dispute is costing the government billions of dollars in lost
revenues and Jathran, still a symbol for many federalists in the east,
where the anti-Gaddafi rebellion began, is holding his ground.
But
Zeidan is waiting him out, trying to divide the rebel ranks through
tribal mediation in the hope that Jathran, whose support among the
federalists on the ground is fraying, runs out of funds to keep his
fighters on side.
"Everyone is looking for a face-saving way out of this," said one Libyan oil industry veteran.
Zeidan vs Jathran
With
a long history of grievances under Gaddafi, federalists from the
eastern region they call by the pre-Gaddafi name Cyrenaica want a fairer
share of Libya's vast oil wealth, which they say the central government
is squandering.
Jathran, a hero from the anti-Gaddafi revolt,
defected from the state-run Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) with his
troops in August and seized Ras Lanuf, Es Sider and Zuetina ports, which
accounted for 600 000 barrels per day of exports.
Negotiations
have gone nowhere. But an attempt earlier this month to load a tanker at
Es Sider port ended abruptly when the navy opened fire. That made clear
how difficult it would be for Jathran to sell oil independently of
Tripoli.
For now, Zeidan has the advantage, analysts say, after
restoring production in the west and restarting vital oil revenues, with
output now at around 600,000 bpd.
Eurasia Group analyst Riccardo
Fabiani said the prime minister may gain more leverage if he manages to
reopen the Marsa al Hariga port by negotiating separately with rebels
there, weakening Jathran's position.
Jathran claims he has 20 000
men backing his federalist cause. But even if his force is closer to
2,000 troops, evicting him by force would be complicated.
When
clashes erupted this month on Libya's southern border, Zeidan asked for
support from the powerful western region Misrata militia. But turning to
militias to oust Jathran would likely incite more violence and inflame
federalist sentiment.
"Zeidan would have to turn to the
militias," said one diplomat. "That could lead to a major conflagration,
so there has to be a negotiated solution."
Crumbling support
Jathran
himself has been evasive about his financial backing, but lawmakers and
analysts say his political support may be waning. Even some eastern
tribes who support federalism brand him a power-hungry warlord.
Federalist
leaders say they are firm in three demands: an independent committee to
supervise oil exports, a probe into oil corruption and a system to
share oil revenue among the three regions Cyrenaica, Tripolitania and
Fezzan in the south.
But Sadeq al Ghaithi, a former Islamist
fighter who become a leading member of the Cyrenaica movement, last year
left the political bureau after disputes over the Jathran leadership.
In
a further sign of discontent, some former troops from the Petroleum
Facilities Guard, who defected with Jathran, have protested to demand
back pay of their government salaries.
Saad Bensharrada, a member
of parliament's energy committee who was involved in mediation to end
to the standoff, said Jathran appeared to be losing tribal support in
the east.
"He changes his demands each month..what is happening
now is that he is becoming more isolated," he said. "But Zeidan lacks
the will to face the problem."
Jathran may be banking on pressure
building on Zeidan after the resignations of his cabinet ministers. The
premier faces an evolving crisis over the future of the congress, which
has extended its transitional term though to February.
In the
latest turmoil in Tripoli, gunmen kidnapped five Egyptian diplomats
after Egypt arrested a top Libyan militia commander. They were all freed
shortly afterwards, though both governments denied any deal.
But
as weak as he may be, Zeidan may survive, with Islamists and the
National Forces Alliance deadlocked in parliament and no clear candidate
emerging to replace him.
One senior Cyrenaica movement activist
said Jathran has only two options now: the collapse of Zeidan's
government or a confrontation that shores up his backing.
"In
this situation he cannot sell oil, if the government in Tripoli
collapses he can," the activist said. "If he cannot sell the oil, the
movement of Jathran will collapse because he needs the money to pay his
troops to support his operations."