alarabiya.net
The recent attempt by an “autonomist” militia in Libya to smuggle an
oil shipment out of the country only served to highlight the dramatic
challenges fueling regional and international concern as Libya’s
domestic strife threatens to spin out of control.
But the
interception, last Sunday, by U.S. Navy Seals of the “Morning Glory”
tanker, after it left the port of al-Sidr, showed that Western powers
were not going to sit idly by as Libya turns into a Somalia-on-the
Mediterranean. Three days after the U.S. raid, the U.N. Security
Council drove the point further by adopting a resolution authorizing
member nations to seize illicit oil shipments from Libya. The resolution
pointed out that the illegal export of Libyan oil “undermines the
government of Libya and poses a threat to the peace, security and
stability of Libya.”
Had the smuggling of the $35-million load of
“Morning Glory” succeeded, it would have provided the Cyrenaica-based
militias of Ibrahim Jadhran with substantial resources to finance their
drive towards “autonomy.” And if black market sale of
Multimillion-Dollar oil shipments were allowed to proceed, they could
have accelerated the dangerous slide towards civil war. There is ample
reason to protest regional imbalances in Libya (and other parts of North
Africa). But seeking “autonomy” through the gun barrels of armed
militias, especially in zero-sum political environments such as Libya’s,
could have only meant further destabilization of a country that’s
already a powder keg. Behind the U.N. security resolution, there was
intent to prevent such a scenario from unfolding. U.S. Ambassador to
the U.N., Samantha Power, made this clear. The “Libyan government’s hand
is now stronger in negotiations with militias threatening one of
Libya’s most precious resources,” she said. Many Western nations
obviously have a business interest in the resumption of oil exports. But
so does Libya. The occupation of eastern installations caused oil
revenues to drop from 1.6 million barrels a day in 2012 to 350,000
barrels last month.
Settling disputes
Three years after
the fall of the Qaddafi regime, there does not seem to be a process to
resolve political, economic, regional and tribal conflicts peacefully.
Seeking the settlement of disputes through dialogue and compromise is
not yet a widely shared narrative. If there is a silver lining, it is
that the majority of opinion is against “autonomous” initiatives. An
opinion poll, published earlier this month by the U.S. National
Democratic Institute, showed that Libyans (even in the east) were
opposed to the calls for autonomy in Barqa (Cyrenaica) and to the
occupation of oil ports by “federalist” militias.
The U.N.
resolution did, however, exhort the Libyan government “to resolve
peacefully” the eight-month standstill. Heavy clashes, which have
erupted yesterday between pro-government forces and the Jadhran-led
militias, are laden with risk. A continued showdown is likely to involve
regional and tribal militias on both sides. It could also lead to
further radicalization of the Barqa militias. “All the battalions that
could wage war are built on a regionalist construct and are not part of a
real national army,” stresses Libyan analyst Jibril Labidi.
Three years after the fall of the Qaddafi regime, there does
not seem to be a process to resolve political, economic, regional and
tribal conflicts peacefully
Oussama Romdhani
The General National Congress does not have to worry about being
challenged by Prime Minister Ali Zeidan, who was voted out of office
during the tanker crisis. However, there are still Libyan factions which
dispute the “legitimacy” of the GNC and criticize the “Islamist
influence” in its midst. Elections are scheduled for June, but by then
politics could turn into a violent free-for-all contest.
Political feuding
Political
feuding can make the security vacuum even worse. While most attention
was focused on the “Morning Glory” saga, the terror threat in Libya
acceded to a new level last Monday, when a car explosion killed eleven
newly graduated military cadets and wounded many more. The type of
attack signaled a new chapter in the activities of Libya’s al-Qaeda
franchise. The modus operandi of the attack was more reminiscent of
Iraq’s bloody terrorist tactics than of the targeted assassination
incidents of the last three years.
Despite their hasty exit after
their 2011 military campaign, Western powers seem willing today to
extend a “helping hand” to Libya. But the country’s zero-sum politics
have hampered consensus over credible interlocutors. Even during the
recent “Friends of Libya” conference in Rome, divisiveness was on full
display to the world. GNC President Nuri Abu Sahmain and Prime Minister
Ali Zeidan both led their own delegations. It is meaningful that after
the Rome meeting, the French foreign ministry pointed out that
“national reconciliation is an essential stage in establishing rule of
law” in Libya. Libyan authorities also fret over resentment by parts of
the population of outside help. “Asking for international assistance in
this fight is not violation of Libyan sovereignty. What violates our
sovereignty is the killing of these youth in cold blood,” pleaded the
justice minister, Salah Marghani.
An additional risk factor is
simply the shortage of time. Former Minister of the Interior Fawzi
Abdul-Ali sees “at least three or seven more years” before “real
security” is established in the country. But neither Libya nor its
neighbors, considering the region’s interconnected economics, are going
to convince the masses of young people desperately seeking a better life
to wait for that long.
