During the last few weeks, it was “violence as usual” in Libya. The
French Embassy in Tripoli was bombed.
Police stations were attacked in Benghazi. A car explosion,
near a hospital in Benghazi, killed at least 10 people and injured many more.
As
usual, also, foreigners were running for cover. Embassies announced
once more a reduction in the number of their employees. Warnings were
issued against “non-essential travel” to east, west and south of Libya.
Oil companies also reduced their personnel “because of the
circumstances”.
This time around, there was unprecedented
measures. The U.S. shifted scores of U.S. Marines and assault aircraft
from the rapid response force of the Moron Air Base (in Spain), to
Sigonella, Italy.
A Pentagon's spokesman called the transfer “a
precautionary measure” with no necessary links to developments in Libya.
Some in the U.S. media, however, dubbed the transferred U.S. Marine
unit the “Benghazi Unit”, speculating that it was part of a preemptive
move by the Pentagon, just in case there was another September 11th
2012-type terrorist attack on US interests in Libya.
The wages of insecurity
Both
events and reactions point to the chronic security problem in Libya.
Solving this problem is essential for Libyans themselves.
“There
are an estimated 500 militias and armed groups across Libya with an
estimated 250,000 men under arms outside of government control,”
recently reported UPI from Tripoli. Militias, still running the show in
many regions, have their own political and tribal agendas.
The anti-colonialist mindset that permeates North Africa would make any outside occupation unthinkable.
Oussama Romdhani
They recently held siege to various ministries in Tripoli until the
General National Congress passed a law excluding civil servants who had
served under Qaddafi from holding public office for the next 10 years.
Militias
are no substitute to regular forces, which alone could ensure the
safety of citizens and officials in midst of a delicate transition
period. Politicians, security officers, and judges feel they are in
harm’s way. The just-released International Legal Assistance Consortium
report claims that 8,000 are still held “without charges of
representation.” It explains that “the absence of security for justice
sector personnel has led judges and prosecutors to indefinitely delay
the processing of detainees’ cases.”
Insecurity is currently
hampering the implementation of projects, which means lost employment
and revenue, especially with the disruption of energy production. The
Zueitina oil terminal, southwest of Benghazi, was shut down a few days
ago as protesters blocked access to it for the second time in six
months. (Similar disruption of oil installations has cost the country
about $1 billion over the last five months, according to Oil Minister
Abdelbari al-Arusi).
The April attack on the French embassy has
raised alarm in many capitals because of its potential regional
fallouts. Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com and Karim Mezran ,
senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, argue that “the French Embassy
attack may prove to be the start of a trend, in which case Libyan -- and
by extension North African -- instability would become a permanent
status quo. The crisis in Mali and the growing instability in Algeria --
and most recently Tunisia -- offer clear evidence in support of this
conjecture.”
The common wisdom during the debate about the war in
Mali (itself one of the fallouts of the Libyan war), was that US
security was not at stake. With so many blowbacks and ripple effects,
many people today think otherwise. Christopher S. Chivvis, a researcher
at the RAND corporation, believes: “Because of its proximity to Libya’s
shores, Europe would pay the price of a collapse first. But the U.S.
interest in a stable North Africa that is not a haven for radical
militancy would also take a hit.”
What’s the world to do?
Although
the deterioration of the situation in Libya was quick and obvious to
all, no peace-time coalition matched the war coalition which brought
down Gadhafi. The diagnosis of most observers, east and west, has been
in many cases stark. Nawaf Obaid, a Saudi researcher at Belfer Center
for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, wrote in a
recent report that “Libya has been thrown into chaos. Central authority
has been decimated, and the new government is unable to reassert its
authority over any significant section of the country”. His prognosis
was dire: “At present, the survivability of Libya in its present form
over the next decade is highly in doubt,” he says.
In recent
months, Western response to Libya’s turbulence has become so predictable
that it begged the question whether the “trouble-makers” knew which
buttons to push in order to discourage the international community from
helping the Libyan government put its house in order. In the case of the
United States, the over-politicized debate over Benghazi has further
heightened the aversion to risk-taking in Libya. Brian Katulis and Peter
Juul, of the Center for American Progress, argue that “The United
States and its partners are now stuck in a vicious circle: They cannot
offer requisite levels of assistance to the Libyan government because
they are unwilling to risk the poor security situation, and the poor
security situation is not likely to improve without the requisite level
of international help.”
What is required of the West in the case
of Libya is obviously not an Iraq-type military intervention. Libyans
are still traumatized by the effects of the NATO-led campaign against
Gadhafi. Last April when Senator John McCain visited Libya, Libyan Prime
Minister Ali Zidan, felt compelled to deny social media rumors that
NATO will be launching new attacks in Libya. Although very welcoming of
Western assistance, the Libyan population will frown just at the
thought of a foreign military campaign on their soil.
The
anti-colonialist mindset that permeates North Africa would make any
outside occupation unthinkable. Western powers themselves face
enormous cash problems. They have their hands full with current costly
campaigns in Afghanistan and Mali, and with problems in Syria, Iraq and
elsewhere.
Even a drone strategy will be difficult to envision,
outside the surveillance mode. Cambridge researcher Jason Pack, former
leader of the Islamic Fighting Group Noman Benotman, and Libya. com
researcher Haley Cook think: “The logic of drone strikes to disturb
terrorists in this area holds a certain appeal for an administration
that has decimated al-Qaeda leadership in the Af-Pak region, yet it is
the wrong policy choice.”
Most experts believe an international
program, limited in time and scope, with a focus on training, is needed
to help Libyans in the task of re-building the security apparatus and
state institutions. It could simply expand upon the type of assistance
agreed upon by the international community, last February.
Two
plans, the National Security Development Plan and the Justice and Rule
of Law Development Plan, are scheduled to be implemented in Libya. The
European Union will be providing Border security support to Libya
starting in June.
Jason Pack, Noman Benotman, and Haley Cook
argue that “Libya urgently needs international assistance in building
its institutions, especially the basic machinery of government and
security”. This option is all the more viable that Libyans can easily
foot the bill for such an effort. Arab war-coalition partners will
probably pitch in as well.
Libya’s northwestern neighbor
As
they struggle against the Al-Qaeda threat, Tunisian security agencies
will depend a lot on Libya’s ability to rebuild its security apparatus.
On May 8, Tunisian authorities arrested a Libyan carrying 150 kg of
explosives, on a fishing boat. It was not the first instance of arms and
explosives being smuggled out of Libya, to Tunisia, Egypt, Mali or even
Gaza. There were 10 Tunisian Jihadists among the 40-strong squad which
attacked the In Eminas gas plant in January, after reportedly crossing
into Algeria from Libya. Sunday, when Tunisian security forces clashed
with “Ansar al-Shariah” Jihadists, Libya’s “Ansar al-Shariha” militants
were quick to express solidarity with fellow Tunisian radicals.
A
continued crack-down by the Ennahda-led government on Al-Qaeda fighters
could help Libya better secure its borders. Ideally, once greater
stabilization and security materialize in both countries, a
mutually-reinforcing dynamic of development and growth could help meet
the demands of the ambitious but frustrated young populations. Lack of
jobs currently drives unemployed youths to smuggling. Across the
Tunisian-Libyan border, traffickers take advantage of the difference
between fuel prices in both countries.
Libyan Oil Minister
Abdelbari al-Arusi announced this month the decision of his government
to do away with fuel subsidies by 2016.
The International
Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates over 14 percent of Libya's budget or about
$7 billion serve to subsidize food and fuel, which the government says
encourage trans-border smuggling.
Libya’s decision is probably an
unavoidable step towards reforming its subsidy policies. The two
countries will hopefully think, during the three year-period preceding
the end of subsidies, of revenue-alternatives for the social groups who
live off smuggling.
But before engaging a process of growth and
recovery, Libya needs to ensure its security and territorial integrity.
By doing so, it will be definitely ensuring that of its neighbors as
well.
______
Oussama Romdhani is a former Tunisian
minister of Communication, previously in charge of his country's
international image. A former Fulbright scholar at Georgetown University
in Washington DC, he served as a Tunisian diplomat to the United
States, from 1981 to 1995. Appointed as minister in 2009, he is known as
one of the best Tunisian communication specialists. Romdhani is
currently an international media analyst
