shabab libya
The February 7 deadline for the General National Congress (GNC) has
passed with news trickling in of a handful of legislators resigning in
protest but no significant movement to shake the country out of its
political paralysis and regenerate momentum for its transition to
democracy. The streets, however, are grumbling as political maneuvers
continue. Three critical dates approach on which Libya’s trajectory
hinges. That these crucial decisions must be taken in a span of less
than a week in a country where institutions lack capacity and elected
bodies lack leadership sparks fears of a serious collapse of a
politically negotiated transition.February 14: Civil society organizations, inexperienced but enthusiastic, are tirelessly organizing themselves to launch mass demonstrations on February 14 against the GNC to call for new presidential and legislative elections to be held as soon as possible. Skeptics may question the efficacy of such an approach, considering the disparate nature of demonstrations held in Libya leading up to the GNC’s expiration date. While they have been numerous, the turnouts have been less than impressive.
Observers should bear in mind, however, that activists are operating in a climate of intimidation. Tensions escalated in the lead up to what was supposed to be the dissolution of the legislature, including with the Grand Mufti discouraging action against the GNC. Legislators are not yet entirely off the hook, however, as opposition among civil society groups rises over the passage of an amendment to the penal law sentencing anyone seen as insulting the GNC, government, or judiciary to jail time. The brewing anger could culminate on February 14 in a compelling show of outrage in the Libyan streets.
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